Zhu Jiaming: Rethinking about Industrial Blockchain

Text/Zhu Jiaming

This article was first published on the WeChat official account Zinc Link (ID: xinlianjie-), pay attention to the official account, and explore the value of industrial blockchain with us. If you need to repost the article, please apply for a whitelist on WeChat.

This article was first published on the WeChat official account Zinc Link (ID: xinlianjie-), pay attention to the official account, and explore the value of industrial blockchain with us. If you need to repost the article, please apply for a whitelist on WeChat.

It is generally believed that the concept of "blockchain industry" is inspired by the concept of "Internet industry", hoping to repeat the history of deep integration of the Internet and industry in the field of blockchain, and finally form an industrial form based on blockchain technology . Such an original intention was established.

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1. The difficulty of the industrial blockchain: the industrial Internet model cannot be copied

Compared with several dimensions such as technology, industrialization sequence, evolution mechanism, application mode, and expansion paradigm, there are differences between blockchain technology and Internet technology.

First, blockchain technology is different from Internet technology.Internet technology is a combination of computer technology, information technology and communication technology, or in other words, Internet technology can be classified into hardware parts, software parts and application parts. Internet technology has strong and obvious physical characteristics, and its hardware includes data storage, processing and transmission hosts and network communication equipment. Among them, the significance of the network cable as a basic component of the network is particularly obvious, because there is no Internet without network cables. The mobile Internet needs to be realized through smart phones.

Compared with Internet technology, blockchain technology is based on the developed and evolving Internet technology, and its physical infrastructure, hardware, and even hard technology are at the bottom of the blockchain. In other words, blockchain technology is more embodied in non-hardware, non-material and non-physical forms. It is difficult for people to intuitively see that the so-called blockchain technology is an "invisible and intangible" technology, which makes it relatively difficult to explain blockchain technology.

Second, the industrialization sequence of the blockchain and the Internet is different.The history of the development of the Internet is the history of the formation of the Internet industry. Due to the development of IT basic technology, the commercialization of IT technology, the manufacturing of components, parts and components, and the integration and systematization of IT products, many enterprises related to Internet hardware have been created. . Silicon Valley was born.

It is against this background that "Moore's Law" was proposed. For example, the process of 5G replacing 4G in the Internet of Things is the process of generating new technologies, new markets and new enterprises. However, because blockchain technology not only cannot be independent, but even needs to be attached to Internet technology, in the short term, it is difficult to form a group of hardware and software technology development companies based on blockchain technology. As for the realization of large-scale production and industrialization, it will obviously take a long time.

Third, the evolution mechanism of the blockchain is different from that of the Internet.Internet history shows that states and governments played a key role in the early days of the Internet. Later, because of a series of international protocols, including the TCP/IP protocol and the HTTP protocol at the application layer, the "cross-network" problem was solved, and the Internet was able to grow rapidly around the world.

The blockchain is in a different situation. The blockchain has a worldwide influence because of Bitcoin. The birth of Ethereum has no government factors in the whole process. Later, no matter whether it is a private chain, a public chain, or the application and expansion of the alliance chain, there does not exist and does not require the intervention of any international agreement. Just because the blockchain itself is a protocol, or it has its own protocol features. It uses Internet technology to realize the functions and characteristics of the "blockchain" summarized now through a series of protocols. However, after all, the blockchain protocol uses the community as the constraint boundary, and there is a natural problem that it is difficult to "cross-chain".

Fourth, the application models of blockchain and the Internet are different.The Internet is born with the characteristics of a platform, which realizes the interaction between people and people, and between people and information at low cost, including text, voice and pictures. Not only that, the Internet can realize more and more personalized information exchange, and can also realize the integration and amplification of information resources.

Therefore, the Internet has created search engine companies such as Google, social platform companies such as Facebook and Twitter, and Internet online shopping companies such as Amazon and Alibaba, thereby forming a new Internet industry.

In the field of blockchain applications, such a history is difficult to replicate in the short term. The most critical thing is that it is difficult for the blockchain to create a demand for individuals that tend to be infinite, making them both users and creators of the blockchain.

Fifth, the blockchain is different from the paradigm of Internet expansion and sprawl.During the formation of the Internet industry, once a "leading" enterprise is formed, it will immediately produce a demonstration effect, and this demonstration effect is international. For example, because of Amazon, there is Alibaba; because of Facebook and Twitter, there is WeChat.

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2. The development of industrial blockchain depends on the process of digitization

First of all, the basic model of industrial blockchain has great restrictions on its development. At present, the combination of blockchain and industry is manifested in three modes:

1) Industries that have a natural genetic relationship with the blockchain. For example, the encrypted digital currency industry represented by Bitcoin, and the extended financial industry;

2) An industry that transforms the entire business format through blockchain. For example, IP industry, legal and accounting services;

3) An industry that transplants blockchain technology and maintains the characteristics of the original industry. For example, agriculture, food industry, manufacturing, raw materials, energy and transportation.

In the real economy, in the first mode of industrial blockchain, the technology is relatively mature and has great application potential, but it is limited by government supervision and public acceptance. As for the second model of the industrial blockchain, there is a lot of room for development, but the overall impact on the economy is limited.

In fact, blockchain technology is most needed, and the most difficult application of blockchain technology is precisely the third model, the so-called real economy. That is, without the combination of blockchain technology and the real economy, the industrial blockchain will always remain in the initial stage.(This paragraph mainly describes the blockchain industry and its composition. In the current media, the industrial blockchain mainly refers to the use of blockchain to serve B-end enterprises, or the adoption of blockchain technology in real industries.)

Secondly, the premise of realizing the industrial blockchain is the digitization of the real economy. Realizing the combination of blockchain technology and the traditional real economy requires an important prerequisite, which is that the real economy must first complete the digital transformation. In the real economy, the digitization of industry as the secondary industry, or the digitization of the processing industry, bears the brunt.

The fact is that globally, only a small number of economies are involved in advanced digital technologies, the connotation of which is the realization of electricity and renewable energy, software platforms, Internet of Things, big data analysis, artificial intelligence, industrial robots, etc. According to such standards, the vast majority of countries are in a state where production technologies of different eras of the industrial revolution coexist.

If the traditional real economy does not have a digital infrastructure and does not introduce big data collection and analysis, it is almost impossible to directly use blockchain technology. In other words, if the traditional processing industry has already achieved digitalization and intelligent manufacturing, then the introduction of blockchain technology will not only be logical, but will also increase significant benefits.

Third, blockchain technology needs to address the digitization gap. The future goal of the blockchain industry needs to pay attention to the unbalanced distribution of the digitalization of the real economy among different countries, regions and industries. It is necessary to do a good job in the construction of digital infrastructure and transform and integrate new digital technologies into existing production. enterprise.

At the same time, digital manufacturing technology requires skills such as specific digital analysis. Only by eliminating the digital gap and promoting the real economy to accumulate investment capabilities, technical capabilities, and production capabilities for digital transformation, the application and transplantation of blockchain technology will eventually have a solid foundation. Only after the traditional real economy completes the digital transformation will it form a demand for blockchain technology; In fact, this is the current "bottleneck" of the transfer of blockchain technology to the industry.

The combination of blockchain industry and traditional industries is not to implant blockchain technology in traditional industries, but to recreate these industries on the chain. Corresponding to the Internet industry. For example, for e-commerce, opening a website in a traditional shopping mall is not e-commerce. E-commerce refers to re-doing trade on the Internet, which is a new business model.

The same is true for the combination of blockchain and industry. It is not a traditional industry to develop a blockchain application. butfirst level title

3. The future of industrial blockchain lies in new industries

The industrial structure is changing, and blockchain technology needs to be combined with new industries.

In the 1930s, the British economist Ronald Aylmer Fisher (Ronald Aylmer Fisher, 1890-1962) systematically put forward the theory and method of the classification of "three industries" in his book "The Conflict of Security and Progress" The evolution of industrial structure after the Industrial Revolution has been empirically analyzed.

Afterwards, it was generally accepted that before the industrial revolution, the primary industries of the human economy, such as agriculture, animal husbandry, and forestry, were the main production sectors; In the middle of the 20th century, the tertiary industry first rose in developed countries, absorbing a large amount of capital and labor, and the tertiary industry replaced the dominant position of the secondary industry.

The problem is that 70 to 80 years have passed since the industrial classification method created by Fisher in the 1930s. The industrial structure of the world is very different from that of Fisher's time. The limitations and defects of the industrial system are becoming increasingly apparent.

Therefore, in view of the fact that the tertiary industry is too complicated, people divide the industry of scientific and technological knowledge from the tertiary industry into the "fourth industry", the cultural industry and creative industry into the "fifth industry", and the non-profit public industry into the "fifth industry". "Sixth Industry".

The so-called new industries that blockchain needs to integrate include knowledge, technology, culture and concept industries. The combination of blockchain and these new industries has inherent digital advantages, and there is a strong demand for blockchain technology, which can show obvious benefits after application. Compared with the traditional real economy, the brand-new industry is no longer subject to the constraints of production factors such as capital, labor and land, and its products are no longer subject to material structure, and there is no wear, depreciation, or even abandonment process. The new industry depends on more information, data, knowledge and ideas. Among them, data is particularly important and has become the most important factor of production in new industries.

Therefore, new industries, especially future industries with virtual features, need blockchain technology even more. For example, the process of artistic creation such as art, music, and dance is a digital process, which is condensed into the protection of intellectual property rights after the product, people's attention and experience of art products, and the transaction of art products, because blockchain technology will be very different.

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4. Conclusion: Seeking the mechanism of "industrial association"

In industrial economics, there is "industrial linkage theory". The theory mainly emphasizes two points: (1) There is a relationship between intermediate input and intermediate output among industries. Leontief's "input-output" method provides methods and models on how to solve the intermediate inputs and intermediate demands of various industries. (2) The related industries gradually have the relationship between the front and back direction, and the effect of industry ripple. The concept of "industrial chain" proposed by people later actually describes a state of industrial association.

The blockchain industry also needs to seek an "industrial association" mechanism, establish an associated node system, establish the mutual influence, induction and dependence relationship between the industry and the blockchain, and ultimately stimulate related technology integration, capital demand and employment, and promote the adoption of blockchain The profit and capital utilization rate of the enterprise will eventually form a blockchain-based industrial chain, avoiding the "islanding" phenomenon of blockchain applications.

The blockchain industry also needs to seek an "industrial association" mechanism, establish an associated node system, establish the mutual influence, induction and dependence relationship between the industry and the blockchain, and ultimately stimulate related technology integration, capital demand and employment, and promote the adoption of blockchain The profit and capital utilization rate of the enterprise will eventually form a blockchain-based industrial chain, avoiding the "islanding" phenomenon of blockchain applications.

In addition, the overall development and upgrading of blockchain technology and the expansion of the scientific basis of blockchain technology are crucial to the formation and development of the blockchain industry.

2020.1.29

Beijing