Polymarket User Bet Nearly $200,000 Before Key Poll Release, Profiting Over $77,000

Odaily News: Researchers at Vanderbilt University found that a Polymarket user invested nearly $200,000 on October 31, predicting that U.S. Nebraska Senator Pete Ricketts would win reelection. About an hour later, a poll jointly released by The New York Times and Siena College showed Ricketts in the lead, and the user ultimately profited more than $77,000.

According to the report, the user also made similar large trades on other prediction markets such as Kalshi, and it remains unclear whether the user possessed insider information. Brett Goldstein of Vanderbilt University's Institute of National Security believes that this series of trades is difficult to regard as a random event and that further investigation is necessary.

Polymarket said it has identified the relevant trades and is investigating, while Kalshi declined to comment. (The New York Times)