Polymarket: 98.4% of Popular Picks Correctly Predicted in Settled U.S. Midterm Election Markets

Odaily reports: Polymarket posted on X that 419 market popular picks won on the day before the election, accounting for 98.4%; another 7 outcomes were opposite to the popular picks, and 78 markets are still pending settlement.

Polymarket also stated that in 10 key elections, it judged the election results with 99% probability, approximately 31 minutes earlier than the median time when CNN, Fox News, and the Associated Press (AP) announced their results. Among them, the prediction for the Michigan Senate election was about 4 hours ahead of mainstream media.