AAOI closed down 7.35%, Serenity remains bullish on long-term shortage of high-spec lasers

Odaily reports: "White-haired stock guru" Serenity posted on X platform stating that different segments of the AI optical communication supply chain face significantly different supply-demand conditions. Even if data center construction slows in the future and overall demand drops by 20%–30%, high-spec lasers may still remain in supply shortage. With the scaling of CPO architecture, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang expects optical component usage to reach 15 times current levels, while more and more hyperscale cloud service providers are beginning to adopt NPO architecture. The $5 billion UHP laser contract recently secured by LITE also reflects the growth in related demand.

Serenity believes that AAOI has vertical integration capabilities and 300–400mW laser production capacity, and is expected to shift its business focus toward higher-margin standalone laser supply; SIVE is a purer play on the laser supply bottleneck, with the ability to produce high-power, multi-wavelength NPO/CPO lasers above 200mW. Serenity noted that for supply bottlenecks similar to HBM, large-size substrates, lasers, and liquid-cooled transformers, even if overall demand declines, the companies involved may still sell out all their capacity.

Serenity also stated that if the market begins to reduce risk exposure, a more reasonable approach would be to prioritize selling optical module manufacturers, server rack assemblers, and Neocloud companies that still rely heavily on external financing, rather than treating all AI supply chain companies as uniformly dependent on massive financing and lacking profitability.

According to MSX.COM data, AAOI closed down 7.35% on the day and fell 0.20% in after-hours trading.