Polymarket's "Next Fable model will be released by end of October" probability drops to 38%, down 30% in 24 hours

PPP prediction market tool monitoring shows that Polymarket's "Next Fable model will be released by end of October" probability has dropped to 38%, down 30% in 24 hours.

The market resolves to Yes as long as Anthropic officially opens to the public, before the end of October, a model whose name contains "Fable" and whose version number is 5.2 or above; otherwise it resolves to No.

Specifically:

- The name must contain Fable

- The version must be 5.2 or higher

- Claude Fable 5.2, Claude Fable 5.3, and Claude Fable 6 all count

- Claude Fable 5.1 does not count

- Claude Mythos 5.2 also does not count, because the name does not contain Fable

- It must have actually been opened to the public for use

- Open beta and public waitlists both count

- Closed testing, private testing, and internal access do not count

- If the official website only shows placeholder text or error labels but the model is not actually open, it does not count

- Anthropic's official information is the primary basis, and credible media reports will also be referenced

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