Analysis: Bitcoin May Remain Range-Bound Between $81,300 and $84,400 Ahead of Fed Decision

Odaily reports: Bitfinex stated that despite repeated downward pressure, Bitcoin has continued to hold the lower end of its range, and BTC is expected to remain range-bound between $81,300 and $84,400 ahead of the Federal Reserve's FOMC interest rate decision on October 28. If the price tests the upper boundary of the range, short-term traders taking profits could introduce some selling pressure.

On the market data front, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $526.7 million on October 19, indicating somewhat stronger spot demand, but BTC price is still fluctuating narrowly between $81,724 and $83,470 and remains below the average cost basis of ETF investors at $84,333. Meanwhile, futures open interest on major exchanges has rebounded 4.2% from its October 12 low to 645,410 BTC, and funding rates are normalizing, suggesting leveraged long positions have recovered somewhat.

In the options market, notional open interest for options expiring on October 23 stands at $1.23 billion, with the max pain point at approximately $82,000; monthly options expiring on October 30 total $11.2 billion, with a max pain point of $76,000. On-chain data shows that the $82,224 cost basis range added approximately 145,000 BTC, while the $80,353 cost basis range shed about 62,000 BTC, indicating some holdings are migrating toward higher cost basis ranges. The short-term holder SOPR is approximately 1.003, and the share of profitable supply is around 70%.