JPMorgan Adds Bitcoin to Long-Term Return Forecasts for the First Time, with Return Potential That Could Surpass Gold and Bonds

Odaily reports: JPMorgan Asset Management has for the first time incorporated Bitcoin into its long-term capital market assumptions, projecting an annualized return of approximately 10% for Bitcoin over the next decade, with the potential to outperform stocks, bonds, and gold. However, the forecast also assumes an annualized volatility of 55% for Bitcoin, more than three times that of U.S. large-cap stocks.

JPMorgan believes that gradually improving regulatory frameworks and continued enhancements in market liquidity and price discovery mechanisms could further drive Bitcoin's acceptance in traditional financial markets. Looking ahead to the next decade, technological innovation in areas such as artificial intelligence, robotics, healthcare, and space, along with approximately $15 trillion in global capital expenditure growth, are also expected to drive economic growth and asset returns.

Analysts noted that the correlation between Bitcoin and other assets is unstable, making it currently unsuitable as a diversification asset in balanced portfolios. As a result, the firm has not yet included it in its main portfolio models. If Bitcoin's volatility continues to decline and its correlation with other assets stabilizes in the future, its value for portfolio allocation could increase. (Bloomberg)