Analyst: Long-term holders' transfers to exchanges remain low during BTC decline, short-term holder selling pressure weakens

Odaily News: On-chain analyst Murphy posted on X that during the recent BTC decline, the scale of BTC transfers to exchanges by short-term holders (STH) increased significantly, with an average of approximately 2,200 BTC transferred per hour within a 4-hour window, reaching the fourth-highest level since the market rally began in August this year. However, the transfer peak on October 15 was already lower than that of October 8, indicating that the potential selling pressure from short-term holders has somewhat weakened.

In contrast, long-term holders (LTH) transferred only about 480 BTC per hour to exchanges during the same period, roughly one-fifth of that of short-term holders. Murphy noted that on October 8, long-term holders had a transfer peak of approximately 3,700 BTC per hour, which may have been partly related to asset transfers triggered by a hardware wallet security incident. However, considering that both long-term and short-term holders showed large-scale transfers on that day and BTC prices fell rapidly, actual selling pressure still existed in the market.

Murphy believes that during the current decline, those transferring BTC to exchanges are primarily short-term holders, while long-term holders remain relatively stable overall, and the transfer intensity of short-term holders has weakened compared to before, reflecting that the BTC holder structure still possesses a certain degree of resilience.