Bank of America: A Fed Rate Hike in October Would Be the Biggest Bullish Catalyst for US Stocks

Odaily News: While equity investors around the world are still steering clear of the word "rate hike," Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett has put forward a counterintuitive judgment: if the Federal Reserve chooses to proactively raise rates in October, it would not be a negative, but could instead become the biggest bullish catalyst supporting risk assets and underpinning US stocks.

In Hartnett's view, against the current backdrop, if the Fed remains on hold for too long, bond investors will continue to demand higher term premiums, pushing long-end yields further up and ultimately forcing financial conditions to tighten on their own. Conversely, if the Fed proactively raises rates at its October meeting, sending a hawkish signal to curb inflation risks ahead of time, long-end yields could instead stabilize. In that case, the short-term shock from a rate hike may prove less damaging than the greater harm caused by disorderly bond market volatility. (CLS)