AI Models Assess Bitcoin Signature Security Risks: Up to 76% Probability of Being Cracked Within 20 Years

Odaily reports that on-chain analyst Willy Woo shared AI-generated estimates on October 11, indicating a 1.3% probability that Bitcoin's digital signatures could be cracked within the next two years. The estimates addressed quantum computing as well as classical mathematical or AI-assisted cryptanalysis.

Subsequently, researchers used approximately 4 AI models to assess the probability that Bitcoin's ECDSA and Schnorr signatures could be practically cracked within the next 2, 5, 10, and 20 years. ChatGPT-6 Astra gave a 20-year probability of approximately 76%, Claude approximately 66%, Grok 60%, and Deepseek 34%.

All 4 models identified quantum computing as the primary long-term threat, estimating the related probability over the next two years at 0% to 2%. The models also noted that there is currently no practical classical cryptanalysis method for cracking secp256k1, and that improvements in AI capabilities alone have not produced any verified cryptanalytic breakthroughs. (Bitcoin.com News)