Huatai Securities: Fed unlikely to hike again in October, base case points to another hike in December

Odaily News: Huatai Securities noted that the September nonfarm payrolls report came in below expectations, reducing the urgency for the Fed to hike rates consecutively in the short term. As single-month nonfarm data is highly volatile, the 3-month average shows new nonfarm payrolls at 51,000, near the equilibrium employment level. Combined with the unemployment rate still at a low level, this indicates the job market remains solid but hardly tight. The weakening of September nonfarm payrolls, coupled with declining wage growth, suggests that real income slowed somewhat in September, and household consumption may also struggle to sustain August's strong performance. Looking ahead, the forward-looking NFIB hiring intentions indicator suggests that October nonfarm payrolls may remain weak, but payrolls could rebound thereafter. Therefore, Huatai Securities believes it is difficult for the Fed to hike rates consecutively in October, with the base case pointing to another hike in December. (Jinshi)