Polymarket odds of Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026 drop to 6%, down 51% in a single week

PPP prediction market tool monitoring shows that on Polymarket, the probability of Anthropic completing an IPO before October 15, 2026 has dropped to 6%, down 51% in a single week; the probability of an IPO before October 31, 2026 has dropped to 60%, down 29% in a single week.

According to the resolution rules, if Anthropic officially lists on a public stock exchange and opens for stock trading before 23:59 Eastern Time on the specified date, it resolves as Yes; otherwise, it resolves as No. In addition, if Anthropic is acquired by a publicly listed company, it immediately resolves as No. The primary basis for resolution of this market is documents and announcements published by Anthropic officially and by the stock exchange where its shares are listed.

Previously, Reuters reported, citing sources, that Anthropic planned to launch its IPO roadshow as early as mid-October and was aiming to go public before the U.S. midterm elections in November. Today, however, David Sacks, chairman of the U.S. President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology, called for suspending Anthropic's IPO until the relevant "whistleblower" allegations are fully investigated.

The "whistleblower" refers to former Anthropic researcher Jacob Coxon, who previously resigned over concerns about AI safety risks and publicly accused Anthropic and OpenAI of racing to develop self-improving superintelligence without adequate safety safeguards.

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