Glassnode: Bitcoin Remains in "Capitulation Phase," Current Rebound Should Be Seen as a Local Bounce in the Bottoming Process

According to Odaily, Glassnode's latest report points out that Bitcoin's on-chain structure is still in the "capitulation phase," with the short-term holder cost basis having dropped to approximately $68,500, below the real market average of around $75,800. Meanwhile, the current relative unrealized loss peaked at roughly 25%, significantly lower than the over 60% level seen during capitulation phases in previous cycles, indicating that the market's loss severity in this cycle is relatively shallower but more widely distributed, which may require a longer period to complete the clearing process.

Glassnode also stated that the 90-day moving average of the realized profit/loss ratio currently stands at 0.75, whereas historically, this indicator typically falls below 0.5 before seller exhaustion occurs. Therefore, true seller exhaustion has not yet emerged. Glassnode further noted that until this indicator breaks back above 2, any price rebound should be viewed more as a local bounce rather than a fundamental shift in market trend.

Additionally, the 30-day directional premium in the perpetual futures market turned significantly negative during the recent decline but has now rebounded noticeably and re-entered positive territory. This suggests that leveraged traders are once again willing to pay a premium for long exposure, indicating that speculative risk appetite has improved somewhat. However, in contrast to the improvement in the perpetual futures market, the Coinbase Premium Index remains persistently negative, suggesting that demand in the U.S. spot market has yet to show a meaningful return.