Analyst: BTC has been suppressed by the short-term holder cost basis for 2 consecutive months, with the market in a weak equilibrium

Odaily News: Trader Murphy (@Murphychen888) posted on the X platform stating that the Realized Price for Bitcoin short-term holders with a holding period of less than 3 months (<3m) is currently approximately $67,900. Since June 20, BTC has continued to face resistance after rebounding near this cost line, and this has persisted for nearly 2 months. Meanwhile, the slope of this cost curve has approached zero, indicating a continued decline in turnover activity for these related positions.

The analysis points out that similar situations occurred during the late bear market phases of 2018 and 2022, when BTC was suppressed by the <3m realized price for roughly 3 consecutive months, followed by sharp volatility driven by the BCH hash war and the FTX incident, respectively. Continued suppression by this cost line may reflect a structurally weak equilibrium in the market, and any push from external forces could break this fragile balance.