Analysis: Bitcoin's Supply in Profit Approaches 60%, But Confirming a Bull Market is Still Premature

Odaily reports that the overall profitability of the Bitcoin market is improving, but on-chain data suggests it is still insufficient to confirm the start of a new bull market, with the risk of another downturn remaining.

Data from CryptoQuant shows that Bitcoin's Supply in Profit has risen to 57.5%. This metric represents the proportion of BTC supply whose current market price is higher than its acquisition cost. It has rebounded significantly from the 2026 low of 46.2% on June 30, now approaching 60%. However, the recovery of the supply in profit still needs sustained validation. Historical cycles indicate that the true end of a bear market typically requires two conditions to be met simultaneously:

First, the 30-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of the Long-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (LTH-SOPR) must consistently remain above 1 and not drop below it for several weeks.

Second, Bitcoin's Supply in Profit needs to stabilize above 64%.

Analysts point out that this cycle has already seen one "false breakout." Between April 28 and June 1 this year, the average LTH-SOPR stayed above 1 for 35 consecutive days, while the Supply in Profit briefly rose to 67%. However, the market subsequently declined again. Currently, the 30-day SMA of the LTH-SOPR has been below 1 for over 50 consecutive days, remaining a key risk signal for assessing the strength of the market recovery.

While the proportion of BTC in profit is improving, the market needs further confirmation regarding long-term holder behavior and changes in the profit structure before determining whether the current rebound will genuinely transition into a new upward cycle. (Cointelegraph)