韩股暴跌重演亚洲金融危机？分析机构称韩国当前金融风险与1996年亚洲金融危机结构性相似

Odaily Odaily reports that in response to the recent sharp decline in the South Korean stock market, the domestic independent global macro research institution, Tantu Macro, previously stated that there are structural similarities between South Korea's current financial risks and the 1996 Asian Financial Crisis (AFC): semiconductor exports account for 41% of total exports (compared to 16% in 1996), foreign ownership of stocks has reached an all-time high of 40%, and the external debt-to-GDP ratio has risen to 39.6%. However, key differences exist: 1) The reserve adequacy ratio (ARA) stands at 92% (only 54% before the AFC), while the proportion of short-term external debt has fallen to 9.4% (11.5% before the AFC); 2) A freely floating exchange rate has replaced a soft peg, reducing the risk of a speculative attack; 3) The growth rate of corporate leverage has slowed, and the bank non-performing loan ratio is lower than during the AFC period.

Currently, risks are mainly concentrated in the stock market: The KOSPI's price-to-book ratio of 2x and price-to-earnings ratio of 30x are both at record highs, and margin debt has doubled in a year and a half to 38.6 trillion won. The financial stability index shows overall risk is at the 62nd percentile historically (yellow warning zone), while the valuation dimension is at the 91st percentile.

Model calculations estimate a 5% probability of South Korea falling into negative growth over the next year, but the risk of a vicious cycle is significantly lower than during the AFC, primarily due to an enhanced foreign reserve buffer and increased exchange rate flexibility. Recessions of this magnitude have only occurred three times in the past thirty years. Core warning: If the semiconductor cycle reverses or Fed tightening triggers foreign capital outflows, the stock market could become a hub for risk transmission.