Serenity: Institutions Begin to Revalue Humanoid Robot Businesses, Chinese Manufacturers' Overall Production Capacity Expected to Reach 100,000 Units by Year-End

"White-Haired Stock Guru" Serenity posted on X platform, pointing out that IBK Research released a report last month on the Boston Dynamics supply chain. The report indicates that Boston Dynamics plans to achieve an annual production capacity of 30,000 units only by 2028, while Chinese robot manufacturers are expected to reach a total production capacity of 100,000 units by the end of 2026. This may lead institutions to begin revaluing the humanoid robot sector.

In terms of the competitive landscape, the U.S. camp includes Tesla, Figure, Apptronik, and Agility Robotics, while Boston Dynamics is controlled by South Korea's Hyundai Motor Group. Major Chinese players include Unitree Robotics, Fourier Intelligence, AGIBOT, UBTECH Robotics, and XPeng Robotics. European companies include Neura, Pal Robotics, Wandercraft, and Oversonic.

Additionally, IBK Research estimates that Atlas shipments will reach 11,290 units by 2028, and will increase to 20,000, 30,000, 40,000, and 50,000 units respectively between 2029 and 2032. However, Serenity questioned this linear growth model, arguing that the actual volume ramp-up curve is more likely to follow an S-curve. Serenity predicts that shipments could reach 15,000 to 20,000 units by 2028, increase to 40,000 to 70,000 units by 2029, and further rise to 90,000 to 140,000 units by 2030.