Pantera Capital: Hyperliquid's Potential Market Size Reaches $10 Trillion in Daily Trading Volume, Regulation Remains the Biggest Risk

Odaily Odaily reports that crypto venture capital fund Pantera Capital stated in a post that Hyperliquid's total addressable market is approximately $10 trillion in daily notional trading volume, including around $200 billion in 0DTE options and leveraged ETF trading, approximately $2 trillion in commodity derivatives trading, and around $8 trillion in foreign exchange derivatives trading.

Pantera indicated that if Hyperliquid can consistently capture a low-single-digit percentage share of the aforementioned markets, its revenue potential could reach five times current levels. According to estimates, if the HIP-3 market achieves an annualized notional trading volume of $3.65 quadrillion and captures a 1% market share, under the assumptions of a combined fee rate of 2 basis points and Hyperliquid's economic split of 50%, the platform's revenue could reach approximately $3.7 billion.

However, Pantera pointed out that regulation remains the biggest risk for Hyperliquid. Perpetual contracts are currently not fully open in the United States, and if the US promotes the legalization of related products in the future and introduces regulated platforms, Hyperliquid could face more intense competition, with some US user trading volume potentially shifting to compliant trading venues. Pantera believes Hyperliquid could also launch a regulated version targeting the US market in the future.