Core PCE Inflation Rate May Be Revised Down by 0.2 Percentage Points; US BEA to Adjust Some Calculation Methods for PCE

Odaily Planet Daily reported that the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) recently announced adjustments to some calculation methods for the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE). The relevant changes are expected to be reflected in the data revision scheduled for release on September 30, 2026. Market estimates broadly indicate that this adjustment will likely lower the core PCE inflation rate by approximately 0.2 percentage points. Current data shows that over the 12 months ending May 2026, core PCE inflation stood at 3.4%, remaining above the Federal Reserve's 2% target since March 2021. The BEA's primary adjustments this time focus on three specific sectors: portfolio management and investment advisory services, computer software and accessories, and legal services, modifying their respective price calculation methods.

Former Federal Reserve Governor Miran stated in a speech last December that "some of what should have been recorded as an increase in the quantity of service consumption has instead been recorded as a price increase." In May of this year, Miran, along with Fed economists Alessandro Barbarino and Anthony M. Diercks, published a paper analyzing the shortcomings of existing statistical methods, including issues with the measurement of products like portable storage devices and video games. JPMorgan economist Abiel Reinhart remarked, "‘Grand Theft Auto 6’ might also have a chance to influence the U.S. Treasury yield curve."