Hashdex and Charles Schwab: The Divergence Between Bitcoin and U.S. Stocks May Only Be Temporary

Odaily reported that despite U.S. stock markets continuously hitting new highs and Bitcoin showing relatively weak performance so far this year, asset managers Hashdex and Charles Schwab both believe this divergence will not persist in the long term.

Samir Kerbage, Chief Investment Officer at Hashdex, stated that current market capital is flowing more towards themes such as AI infrastructure, IPOs, and interest rate trading, rather than digital assets. This reflects a shift in capital allocation, not a deterioration in the fundamentals of the crypto industry. He pointed out that stablecoin trading volumes in the first half of this year have already exceeded the total for the full year of 2025, the scale of RWA has grown over 60% year-to-date, and on-chain network transaction activity has also hit an all-time high. The divergence between on-chain fundamentals and market valuations has reached a historical extreme.

Jim Ferraioli, Director of Digital Asset Research at Charles Schwab, indicated that Bitcoin's current trajectory remains consistent with historical cycles following previous halvings. He noted that the current production cost for inefficient miners is approximately $95,000, while the average market cost basis is around $80,000. As prices rebound, they may still face some selling pressure from holders seeking to break even. He believes that as the Bitcoin market matures, the amplitude of volatility in future cycles is likely to diminish.