CryptoQuant: Bitcoin's Next Bull Run May Require $1 Trillion in New Inflows

Odaily Odaily reports that CryptoQuant data shows Bitcoin has exhibited a distinct "diminishing capital efficiency" characteristic across its bull and bear market cycles. As the asset's scale expands, the price increase driven by each unit of new capital continues to decline:

In the 2011 cycle, approximately $2.8 billion in net inflows propelled Bitcoin up by roughly 55,000%;

In the 2015 cycle, approximately $69 billion corresponded to about a 10,000% increase;

In the 2018 cycle, approximately $365 billion corresponded to about a 2,000% increase;

Since 2022, the current cycle has attracted approximately $697 billion in capital, yet the price increase is roughly 689%.

The data is based on "Realized Capitalization," which values each coin at its last moving price, serving as an approximate measure of actual capital inflows. CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju stated that if Bitcoin is to experience another parabolic rally, it may require over $1 trillion in new capital inflows, further solidifying its status as a macro asset rather than merely an ETF-driven trading asset.

Ki Young Ju also noted that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recently seen net capital outflows, indicating that market structural demand is still in a transition phase. Analysis suggests this trend reflects a natural decline in Bitcoin's marginal returns as its market capitalization grows. Unless larger-scale institutional capital steps in to absorb supply, it will be difficult for high-multiple growth to replicate the performance of earlier cycles. (CoinDesk)