Polymarket probability of OpenAI releasing Astra before September 15 drops to 42%, down 18% in 24 hours

According to monitoring by the PPP Prediction Market Tool, in the Polymarket "OpenAI Astra Release Date" prediction market, the probability of OpenAI releasing Astra before September 15 has dropped to 42%, down 18% in 24 hours; the probability of a release before August 31 is currently at 10%, down 8% in 24 hours.

If OpenAI officially releases Astra before the specified date in the title (Eastern Time), or releases a product confirmed to be the same model as the previously disclosed Astra and makes it available to the public, the market will settle as Yes; otherwise, it will settle as No.

The model can be named Astra, Astra 1, GPT-6 Astra, or any other name, but it must be confirmed by OpenAI's official channels or credible media that it is indeed Astra. Models such as GPT-5.7 and GPT-6 will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model as Astra.

A public beta or opening a waitlist counts as an official release; closed beta or private access does not. Settlement will primarily rely on official information from OpenAI, with consistent reports from credible media also considered.

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