U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Miss Expectations, Market Bets on Rate Hike Delay to Year-End

Odaily News According to U.S. June non-farm payroll data, although the unemployment rate declined, hiring activity slowed significantly in June, curbing the momentum seen earlier this year in employment growth. According to data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday, after a downward revision of 74,000 to the previous two months' data, non-farm payrolls increased by 57,000 in June (market expectations were for 110,000).

The unemployment rate fell due to a sharp decline in the labor force participation rate—when the participation rate drops, it means some people have exited the labor market (e.g., stopped looking for jobs, retired early, returned to school, etc.). These individuals are no longer counted among the unemployed or part of the labor force, thereby causing the unemployment rate to fall. Following the data release, spot gold surged briefly, and the market also scaled back bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike. The market has fully priced in expectations for a Fed rate hike in December, compared to previous expectations for an October hike. (Jin Shi)