Strategy’s Valuation Drops Below Bitcoin Holdings, mNAV Falls Below 1 for the First Time, Attracting Market Attention

Odaily Strategy's enterprise valuation has fallen below the value of its Bitcoin holdings, with its enterprise value to net asset multiple (mNAV) dropping below 1 for the first time, signaling a shift in the market's valuation logic for the company.

Data shows that Strategy's current stock price is approximately $82, down about 85% from its all-time high in November 2024. Its enterprise value stands at around $50.4 billion, while the value of its Bitcoin holdings is approximately $51.1 billion (calculated at roughly $60,000 per Bitcoin). This means the market currently values the entire company at less than the value of the Bitcoin it holds.

For a long time, the market valued Strategy significantly higher than its Bitcoin reserve, allowing the company to raise capital at a premium and continuously accumulate more Bitcoin. This model has been considered a key foundation of Michael Saylor's capital strategy. However, with the mNAV now below 1, raising capital through new equity issuance could potentially have a dilutive effect on existing shareholders.

Analysts point out that this change makes Strategy's valuation structure more akin to a "closed-end fund," similar to the discount trading state observed in the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust during different market cycles. Such structures typically lack effective arbitrage mechanisms, making it difficult for discounts or premiums to correct quickly.

However, unlike traditional closed-end funds, Strategy still possesses a variety of capital instruments, including debt financing, equity financing, software business cash flow, and capital structure management. In theory, this provides a degree of flexibility to navigate market volatility. (CoinDesk)