灰度: If the Fed Pauses Rate Hikes, Bitcoin May Catch Up with Stock Performance

According to a post by Zach Pandl, Head of Research at Grayscale, since the Iran conflict began at the end of February, U.S. stocks have risen by 9%, while Bitcoin has fallen by 1% and gold by 20%. Although significant AI-related spending has supported the stock market, Bitcoin and gold have underperformed, partly due to market expectations that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates to combat inflation. Grayscale disagrees with this expectation, and its base case scenario is that the Fed will pause rate hikes. Zach Pandl noted that since the Iran conflict began, the 1-year Fed rate expectation has risen by approximately 60 basis points, with about half of Fed officials believing that a rate hike in 2026 could be appropriate, and the European Central Bank has already raised rates. As non-yielding monetary assets, gold and Bitcoin compete with fiat currencies. An increase in real fiat interest rates raises the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin and gold, thereby suppressing demand. Bitcoin serves a dual purpose in an investment portfolio: on one hand, it is a scarce digital commodity that can act as a long-term store of value; on the other hand, as a public chain asset, it offers exposure to the long-term growth of the crypto industry. Therefore, Bitcoin's function in a portfolio is similar to, but not entirely identical to, gold and growth stocks. Zach Pandl indicated that if the likelihood of rate hikes decreases, in line with Grayscale's base case scenario, Bitcoin could catch up with stock performance.