The options market pricing indicates approximately a 40% probability that SpaceX will surpass Nvidia to become the "world's most valuable company" by the end of 2028.

After listing on Nasdaq with a valuation of approximately $2.6 trillion, SpaceX quickly became the fifth most valuable publicly traded company globally and is competing with Amazon for market capitalization rankings. However, options market pricing suggests that it will still take considerable time for SpaceX to climb to a higher market cap tier.

For SpaceX to surpass Apple and Alphabet (both with market caps exceeding $4.4 trillion) and rank second globally, its stock price would need to rise about 70% from current levels to $340. Options market pricing indicates the probability of SpaceX reaching that price by July 2028 is roughly 50%.

If SpaceX aims for the "world's most valuable" title, surpassing Nvidia's market cap, the options market estimates the probability of achieving this by June 2028 at about 38%, and by the end of 2028 at approximately 41%.

Analysts point out that options prices reflect the market's collective expectations for future paths. The pricing of high-strike-price options implies that despite SpaceX's strong growth narrative, becoming the world's most valuable company is still viewed as a high-uncertainty, long-cycle event. (CNBC)