Analysis: U.S. Treasury Yield Curve Continues to Flatten, Signaling Hawkish Stance, Potentially Curbing Bitcoin’s Short-Term Rebound

Odaily reports that the bond market is signaling increasingly restrictive interest rate expectations, which may continue to weigh on risk assets like Bitcoin. The spread between the U.S. 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields has narrowed to approximately 28 basis points, its tightest level since April 2025, indicating a clear flattening of the yield curve. This shift is widely interpreted as a heightened market expectation of tighter monetary policy or “higher for longer” interest rates.

Skanda Amarnath, Executive Director of the policy research organization EmployAmerica, noted that this flattening trend is "one of the clearest market signals that the Federal Reserve is becoming more hawkish." In a more hawkish interest rate environment, the market anticipates rates remaining elevated for a longer period, which enhances the appeal of fixed-income assets and diminishes the investment demand for non-yielding assets such as Bitcoin.

Beyond the 10-year to 2-year spread, the gap between the 30-year and 5-year Treasury yields has also fallen to its lowest level since last April, further reinforcing the overall flattening trend of the yield curve.

Market participants believe this change represents a significant reversal from the environment earlier this year, which was characterized by a steepening curve and bets on rate cuts. In the latest round of policy signals, the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady, but its dot plot indicated a higher projected path for future rates compared to previous forecasts, with median interest rate expectations shifting upward across the board, strengthening the “higher for longer” narrative.

Analysts suggest that if the high-interest-rate environment persists, risk assets like Bitcoin may struggle to stage a strong upward trend in the short term. The market could enter a phase of volatile downward pressure, intersecting with certain bottoming expectations tied to the halving cycle. (CoinDesk)