Delphi Digital: Only About 12% of Newly Listed Tokens on CEXs Since January Last Year Have Outperformed Their Issuance Price, Reflecting Market Depth Imbalance

Odaily reported that Delphi Digital has released its "Token Market Status Report," indicating that the token market in this cycle has been suppressed by multiple structural issues, including token unlocks occurring on a fixed schedule regardless of project performance, protocol revenues failing to effectively flow back to token holders, and airdrops gradually evolving into sources of exit liquidity.

The report shows that since January 2025, among all newly listed tokens on major centralized exchanges (CEX), if purchased on the listing day and held to the present, an average investment of $1,000 would have dwindled to approximately $500. The median decline is 82%, with only about 12% of tokens still trading above their issuance price, reflecting a market structure that prioritizes "listing quantity over quality."

Regarding tokenomic design, the research points out that across more than 400 unlock events, within a sample of 33, 28 tokens significantly underperformed relative to Bitcoin in the three weeks before and after the unlock, resulting in an average excess loss of approximately 7%. Moreover, most unlocks occur within 30 days, making it difficult for the market to effectively absorb the supply shock.

The report also notes that the long-standing industry issue of "missing value accrual" is beginning to change. An increasing number of protocols are starting to use "Fee Switch" mechanisms to return revenue to token holders. For example, Hyperliquid allocates nearly all its fees to buybacks, Uniswap is burning 100 million UNI tokens, Jupiter uses 50% of its fees for buybacks locked for three years, and Aave has passed a DAO-approved weekly buyback plan of $1 million.

However, the report emphasizes that fee-based buybacks alone are insufficient to resolve supply pressure. For instance, the scale of buybacks for some projects still cannot offset the selling pressure from token unlocks, leading to a situation where "buybacks only offset inflation but fail to generate net buying pressure."

Simultaneously, the structure of institutional capital is shifting. Institutional holdings of Bitcoin-related ETFs like IBIT have grown 62% year-over-year, with advisory channels increasing by 204% and sovereign wealth funds and endowments rising by 228%, while arbitrage-focused hedge funds continue to exit. Long-term capital, including BlackRock, Morgan Stanley, and Mubadala Investment Company, is increasing its allocation.

The report concludes that in the next phase, more attractive token assets will simultaneously feature "revenue accrual mechanisms" and "supply release structures linked to protocol performance." However, the current market remains in the early stages of structural repair.