K33: Current market trends differ from past bear market rallies, $60,000 Bitcoin may be the cycle bottom

Odaily reports that crypto research firm K33 stated that although Bitcoin has retested its 200-day moving average around $82,000 this month and subsequently fallen by about 6%, the low near $60,000 in February this year may still represent the maximum drawdown of this cycle. K33 Research Head Vetle Lunde pointed out that unlike the bear market rallies in 2014, 2018, and 2022, this market experienced a slow recovery lasting 189 days after breaking below the 200-day moving average. Furthermore, market leverage and risk appetite have not been quickly rebuilt. Therefore, the current trend resembles a moderate correction rather than a precursor to another sharp decline.

K33 also noted that institutional fund flows still reflect a defensive sentiment. The latest 13F filings show that institutional investors reduced their holdings by a total of approximately 26,733 BTC in the first quarter, while retail investors increased their holdings by about 19,395 BTC. Neutral strategy institutions like Jane Street and Millennium accounted for most of this reduction. Additionally, Bitcoin ETFs recently recorded the ninth-largest five-day capital outflow since the launch of U.S. spot ETFs. K33 believes this typically occurs when BTC is near the cost basis of ETF holdings, reflecting investors' tendency to cut losses or reduce risk exposure after experiencing significant drawdowns. (The Block)