Analysis: A closure of the Strait of Hormuz will trigger the most severe energy supply crisis in decades

According to Odaily, Wood Mackenzie pointed out in its new report that a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz would pose the greatest threat to the global energy market in decades. Currently, daily production of crude oil and condensate in the Gulf region has already decreased by more than 11 million barrels. Meanwhile, over 80 million tons of liquefied natural gas supply annually (accounting for about 20% of global supply) remains unable to access global markets.

In its latest report, the firm presented three different scenarios: Fast Peace, Summer Reconciliation, and Prolonged Disruption. Each scenario provides a different timeline for ending the conflict and reopening the strait, and assesses the potential impact on oil and gas supply, prices, energy demand, and the broader global economy.

Peter Martin, the company's Director of Economics, stated: "The Strait of Hormuz is the most critical chokepoint in the global energy market. If the strait were closed for an extended period, the impact would go far beyond an energy crisis. The longer it lasts, the greater the impact on energy prices, industrial activity, trade flows, and global economic growth." (Jinshi Data)