Analysis: If US Labor Force Participation Rate Remains at 2024 Levels, Unemployment Rate Could Reach 5.3%

Odaily News According to financial website Investing.com's commentary on the US Nonfarm Payrolls report: The US labor force participation rate continued to decline in April, falling to 61.8%. If this figure remained at its 2024 level, the US unemployment rate would be 5.3%, not 4.3%.

Market analyst Ye Xie stated that the labor market has stabilized recently since late last year, entering a state of "low layoffs, low hiring." Today's employment report did not change this assessment.

Jordan Rochester, Head of EMEA Fixed Income, FX and Commodities Strategy at Mizuho Bank, wrote that overall payroll figures were better than expected, but wage growth was weaker, and the trend of slowing employment growth over the past three months remains unchanged. The unemployment rate held steady again, making it difficult for the market to believe that the labor market has slowed sufficiently to support the logic of rate cuts this year. Apart from ruling out the more dovish scenarios previously highlighted by some analysts, this data is not substantial enough to push the market significantly in either direction. (Jin Shi)