Analysis: Bitcoin Falls Below $80,000 After Hitting High, ETF Outflows and Geopolitical Risks Weigh on Market Sentiment

Odaily reports Bitcoin has fallen below the $80,000 mark, ending a five-day streak of net inflows into spot ETFs, with the market's rebound momentum from the February low showing signs of cooling.

The US added 115,000 non-farm payroll jobs in April, surpassing the expected 62,000, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%. Although the data was relatively strong, it did not significantly alleviate market concerns about macroeconomic uncertainty. Instead, it reinforced the expectation that "energy-driven inflation limits the scope for rate cuts."

In terms of capital flows, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $277 million on Thursday, ending a cumulative inflow streak of $1.69 billion. Ethereum ETFs also recorded net outflows of $104 million on the same day, indicating a short-term cooling in institutional risk appetite.

On the geopolitical front, tensions between Iran and the US have reignited, prompting the market to reprice the risk associated with the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil prices have rebounded, partially offsetting the previous support that risk assets had gained from falling oil prices.

The derivatives market, meanwhile, reflects a more prolonged hawkish outlook. Interest rate futures pricing suggests over a 50% probability of rate hikes persisting beyond 2027, pushing the potential easing cycle back to 2028.

On-chain data shows that the recent Bitcoin rally was primarily driven by institutional spot buying and short covering, with retail participation remaining low. Funding rates have stayed moderate, indicating a relatively weak market momentum structure. Analysts suggest that if retail capital does not return, BTC may still face the risk of retesting the $75,000–$78,000 support range. (The Block)