Institution: US employment growth may slow in April as temporary boost fades

OdailyOdaily reports that US employment growth may slow in April, as the temporary boosts from warmer weather and the return of striking healthcare workers fade. However, this does not signal a substantial change in labor market conditions, and the unemployment rate is expected to remain stable at 4.3%. Data is also projected to show a pickup in wage growth last month, further strengthening financial market expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady until 2027. According to a Reuters survey, economists partially attribute the volatility in employment data to adjustments made this year to the "birth-death model," which is used to estimate job gains or losses from business openings and closures. Some say that a high turnover rate of businesses makes it difficult for the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which compiles the employment report, to accurately estimate job creation related to new firms. Additionally, factors such as weather, strikes, government layoffs, and a significant shift in labor supply due to the Trump administration's crackdown on illegal immigration have also contributed to the volatility. Economists suggest referencing the three-month moving average of employment data for a better understanding of labor market conditions. Veronica Clark, an economist at Citigroup, stated that averaging the data from recent months still shows moderate positive employment growth. Given that the significant changes in immigration flows have already led to a sharp decline in average monthly employment growth this year, this factor alone is not a cause for concern. (Jinshi)