Economist: It's too early to see the impact of the US-Iran conflict on the labor market

According to a Reuters poll, after an increase of 178,000 in March, nonfarm payrolls may have only increased by 62,000 in April, with institutional forecasts ranging from a decrease of 15,000 to an increase of 150,000. The US labor market has been stuck in what economists and the Federal Reserve call a state of "slow hiring, slow firing." This stalemate has been attributed to Trump's trade and immigration policies, as well as the recent Iran conflict. Economists, however, say it is still too early to determine the impact of the US-Iran conflict on the labor market. RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas stated that the current state of the labor market remains unchanged. Labor demand is typically determined months in advance of actual hiring, so the impact of the conflict on labor demand has yet to materialize. The Federal Reserve will focus on wage data and, most importantly, the unemployment rate. These figures are expected to confirm the new consensus that the Fed will not cut interest rates this year due to a weakening labor market. (Jin Shi)