QCP: BTC Rally Driven by Risk Mitigation, Market Remains Range-Bound

Odaily Odaily reports that QCP released a market analysis stating that BTC has rebounded from a low of around $75,000 to $78,000. This rally is primarily driven by risk mitigation rather than a restoration of market confidence.

It points out that the extension of the Iran ceasefire reduces short-term geopolitical risks. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve maintains a data-dependent stance without signaling any clear easing measures. Open interest in futures has recovered, yet funding rates remain negative, indicating new short positions entering the market. In the options market, short-term implied volatility is around 40%, with skew still favoring downside protection. The term structure is only slightly upward-sloping, pointing to a range-bound market environment.

QCP believes that the future market trend will still depend on crude oil prices and monetary policy signals. In the absence of clear catalysts, the market is likely to remain in a wait-and-see pattern.