Polymarket's "Hormuz Strait Returns to Normal by April 30" Probability Drops to 30%, Down 24% in 24 Hours

Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that the probability for Polymarket's "Hormuz Strait returns to normal by April 30" contract has significantly dropped to 30%, a 24% decrease over the past 24 hours. As of now, the trading volume for this event contract has exceeded $15.864 million.

The rules for this event contract are as follows: If the International Monetary Fund's Portwatch reports that the 7-day moving average of daily vessel arrivals ("Vessel Arrivals") for the Hormuz Strait is equal to or greater than 60 on any date between the market creation date and May 31, 2026, the market will resolve to "Yes"; otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Daily vessel arrivals include container ships, bulk carriers, roll-on/roll-off vessels, general cargo ships, and tankers. Vessels not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

Due to the US imposing a maritime blockade on Iran and making excessive demands in negotiations, Iran has not yet agreed to hold the next round of talks with the US. Iran has emphasized that the US "avoiding excessive demands" is a primary condition for continuing negotiations; otherwise, Iran is "unwilling to waste time on protracted and meaningless talks." Multiple ships have attempted to pass through the Hormuz Strait but ultimately turned back. The maritime intelligence company "TankerTrackers.com" posted on social media that two Indian vessels attempting to cross the Hormuz Strait were forced back by the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy, with gunfire reported during the incident.

Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.