Analysis: Fragile US-Iran Ceasefire Fails to Resolve Shipping Crisis, Lack of Concrete Information Hinders Shipping Recovery

Odaily News Despite a fragile ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran causing a sharp drop in oil prices, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remained obstructed on Thursday, with no improvement in passage conditions in the region. Only seven vessels with some connection to Iran were observed leaving the Persian Gulf on Wednesday. Iranian state media reported that, in an effort to demonstrate Tehran's formal control over the waterway, Iran's Ports and Maritime Organization has issued two shipping safety routes. These routes are deemed necessary as various types of anti-ship mines may be present along the conventional routes through this narrow strait.

Martin Kelly, Consulting Director at EOS Risk Group, stated that revisiting the issue of mines in the Strait of Hormuz is "the worst-case scenario for the shipping industry." If the traffic separation schemes normally used by vessels are mined, it would take at least several months to restore safe passage. The International Chamber of Shipping, an industry organization, indicated that more work is needed before vessels can pass through in large numbers again. The association's Secretary-General, Thomas Kazakos, said there is currently not much movement because there is no reliable confirmation regarding ensuring safe passage, nor has any specific information been received on how normal transit will be restored. (Jin10)