Polymarket probability of WTI crude oil breaking $85/barrel in July rises to 75%

According to monitoring by the PPP prediction market tool, in the Polymarket prediction event "WTI Crude Oil Price in July," the market estimates the probability of WTI crude oil breaking $85/barrel at 75%, breaking $90/barrel at 32%, and breaking $95/barrel at 17%.

According to market rules, if the high price of any 1-minute candlestick of the WTI front-month contract reaches or exceeds the corresponding target price during the July trading period, the event is judged as "Yes." Previously, as US-Iran relations eased and expectations for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz increased, concerns over supply disruptions eased, and WTI crude oil prices quickly fell from conflict highs to around $70/barrel. However, tensions in the US-Iran situation have recently escalated again, transportation risks in the Strait of Hormuz have reignited, and the market is repricing the risk of supply disruptions in the Middle East, driving oil prices higher.

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