Goldman Sachs Remains Cautious on Fed Rate Hike Expectations This Year

Odaily News Goldman Sachs analysts noted in a report that since the outbreak of the war on Iran, market pricing for the U.S. Federal Funds Rate has experienced significant volatility, but the likelihood of a rate hike this year remains low. The analysts stated that the current scale of the supply shock is relatively small and more localized compared to previous shocks that triggered inflation issues, and the increase in oil prices is also less than that seen in the 1970s. Furthermore, they believe that "the economy's starting point makes widespread inflation spillover less likely," and the current starting point of monetary policy also reduces the probability of a rate hike. The analysts emphasized: "The Fed typically does not tighten policy solely in response to oil shocks." (Jin10)