Bank of America Warns Market Trends Resemble Pre-2007 Crisis Period

Odaily News: Michael Hartnett, a strategist at Bank of America, stated that the surge in oil prices and escalating concerns surrounding private credit are making market movements increasingly resemble the period preceding the global financial crisis. He pointed out that between July and August 2007, oil prices rose from $70 to $140 per barrel, while the "subprime shock" began to manifest and spread to institutions such as Northern Rock and Bear Stearns. The outbreak of the Iran war on February 28 has driven oil prices up by over 60% this year. Hartnett noted in the report: "Asset performance in 2026 is increasingly mirroring the price movements seen from mid-2007 to mid-2008." He added that Wall Street is "uncomfortably trading out the 07-08 analog pattern." Hartnett indicated that the current market consensus still believes the Iran conflict will not last long, and private credit issues do not pose systemic risks. This judgment is driving investors to maintain long positions, as they believe "policymakers will always step in to save Wall Street." Hartnett believes that the greater risk to the stock market from rising oil prices and tightening financial conditions lies in corporate earnings, rather than inflation. (Jin10)