Analysis: Middle East Conflict Fuels Inflation Expectations, Market Fears Fed May Struggle to Cut Rates

Odaily According to data, the one-year breakeven inflation rate has risen to 4.62%, the highest level since June 2022; the two-year breakeven inflation rate has also climbed to 3.18%, reaching a near one-year high. Analysts point out that if persistently high oil prices drive inflation upward, the Federal Reserve may find it difficult to initiate interest rate cuts from the current 3.5%–3.75% level. Traders currently estimate that the probability of the Fed not cutting rates throughout 2026 has risen to approximately 44.7%.