Bloomberg Strategist: Crypto Market Decline May Signal Start of "Deflation Domino Effect," Iran Situation Could Trigger U.S. Recession

Odaily News, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Commodity Strategist Mike McGlone posted on the X platform, stating that the market is discussing whether the Iran situation could become the trigger for the next U.S. economic recession. Currently, U.S. stock valuations are at historically high levels, while the 180-day volatility of the Nasdaq 100 Index is near its lowest point since 2018. If volatility rises significantly in the future, it could validate his judgment of a market turning point. The current decline in crypto assets may only be the beginning of the "deflation domino effect in the post-inflation era." The crypto market's previous gains were too large, supply has increased, and the price correction is, to some extent, a correction to the excessive rise.

Regarding oil, recent sharp price increases often flush out short sellers, stimulate increased supply, and may trigger risks of a global economic recession. High volatility in precious metals and energy markets may gradually transmit to the stock market. He predicts that following Bitcoin in 2024 and gold in 2025, U.S. Treasury bonds (T-bonds) may become the primary asset for excess returns in 2026. However, if in the future, Bitcoin stabilizes above $74,000, copper prices rise to $6, silver surges to $100, the S&P 500 reaches 7000 points, the Dow Jones climbs to 50,000 points, and U.S. bond yields exceed 5%, his current judgment could be proven false.