每周编辑精选 Weekly Editor's Picks（0418-0424）
- Core Perspective: This week's industry focus centers on the potential risk of physical supply disruptions in the oil market, the maturing trend of crypto assets within investment portfolios, and the game of rule comprehension versus arbitrage opportunities on the Polymarket prediction market.
- Key Elements:
- Oil Market Faces "Temporal Mismatch": Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, delays in tanker rotations caused by earlier shipping interruptions will continue to deplete inventories, potentially leading to a physical shortage rather than a cyclical price increase.
- Crypto Investment Trends: Available capital in the primary market for Series A and later stages is approximately $6-7 billion, with seed-stage capital around $1-2 billion; the future will be an era of "FICC+C" (broad asset allocation plus crypto assets).
- Polymarket Cognitive Gap: The market is not purely about predicting events, but a game between "reality" and "rules." Understanding the settlement rules is key to profitability, leveraging misinterpretations and disputed price discrepancies for arbitrage opportunities.
- WLFI Structural Risk: The 75/25 revenue split, 80% internal token concentration, and overlapping identities between the family and regulatory bodies create an institutional basis for conflicts of interest that does not disappear with an improving market.
- Security Incident: The rsETH bridge contract of Kelp DAO was attacked, resulting in losses of nearly $300 million, triggering a three-way game among Aave, LayerZero; Aave's founder personally donated 5,000 ETH for emergency response.
The information flow is too fast, making it easy for in-depth analysis articles to be drowned out by hot topics. The "Weekly Editor's Pick" column sifts through the vast sea of information to salvage content with judgmental value, helping you filter out the noise, retain insights, and gain inspiration.
Macro Landscape
"Temporal mismatch" is a variable underestimated by the market.
Even if the Strait of Hormuz resumes normal traffic in the short term, the delays in oil tanker rotation caused by the earlier transport disruption will continue to erode onshore inventories for weeks to come. This means that the supply problem will not be immediately alleviated with the "resumption of navigation" but will be reflected with a lag in inventories and the spot market.
Against this backdrop, refinery behavior becomes a key amplifier. If the Strait closure persists beyond April, traditional oil pricing frameworks will break down. The market will no longer face cyclical increases but an extreme scenario approaching a "physical shortage"—in this state, price ceases to be an effective adjustment tool, and the concept of an oil price ceiling loses its reference value.
What can truly rebalance the market is not the restoration of supply, but a "policy-driven demand suppression" similar to the pandemic era.
Investment & Entrepreneurship
Global Census of Consumer-Grade Crypto: Users, Revenue, and Sector Distribution
The user problem in crypto is fundamentally a geographical issue (genuine mass users are overlooked by the West); Tron is the most important consumer-grade public chain; on-chain e-commerce is not viable; revenue and user count often move in opposite directions; the perpetual DEX battle is over, with HYPE emerging victorious.
I Used AI to Analyze 221 'Demon Coins' and Finally Found the Only Viable Trading Strategy
When facing "demon coins," predicting launches and "catching the top" are both infeasible. The only viable strategy is: short during a sharp rally pullback, and strictly close the position on a bounce. And the only effective indicator: naked K-line.
Enter early, keep short positions, and exit quickly.
How Much Capital Do VCs Still Have Left Sticking to Primary Markets?
Frontline investors estimate: available funds for Series A and later stages are approximately $60 to $70 billion, while available funds for seed rounds and earlier stages are approximately $10 to $20 billion.
Fu Peng's 2026 Hong Kong Speech: Why I Joined the Crypto Industry
The future will definitely be "FICC+C," meaning macro asset allocation will include crypto assets. Technology brings financial change, and now is the moment new technology brings new finance. Crypto assets have matured to the point where they can be incorporated into investment portfolios.
Also recommended: Hong Kong IPO Subscriptions: The New Battlefield for Shenzhen's 'Airdrop Farmers'.
Prediction Markets
Polymarket has never been a simple market for "predicting events correctly." It is more of a system that translates real-world events into legal texts, and then translates those legal texts into settlement results.
Understanding the rules is as important as conducting research. The advantage of the "whales" often comes from a deeper understanding of the rules—knowing what this system recognizes and what the arbitration will acknowledge.
Whoever can realize earlier that there is a gap between "reality" and "rules" has a better chance of profiting from the price discrepancies created by misreading, disputes, and emotions.
The Traffic King of Polymarket's '2028 Presidential Election' is... LeBron James???
Approximately 70% of trading volume is concentrated on candidates with a probability of less than 1%. The groups trading or providing liquidity on these absurd event markets can be categorized into three types: "lottery players, bots, and airdrop farmers."
The users trading James, Kardashian, etc., on Polymarket's "2028 Presidential Election" markets are neither crazy nor stupid. They are either chasing stable annualized yields or seeking a more efficient execution path. Although the actions seem absurd, they are still rational-driven.
Policy & Stablecoins
Only 50% Probability of Passing This Year: Can the CLARITY Act Succeed Before the Midterm Elections?
CeFi & DeFi
Aave is Ceding the DeFi Lending Throne Through Its Own Folly
Through its incredibly foolish crisis communication strategy, Aave has allowed market panic to fester for several days, consequently losing its greatest advantages in the lending sector—hundreds of billions of dollars in locked capital and the user mindset label of being the "safest DeFi."
The Reality Behind the Satirical Literature on WLFI
The core controversy surrounding WLFI lies in its revenue distribution structure: "Zero input, high commission, zero responsibility."
WLFI's risk profile can be divided into two levels:
- Structural Risk: The 75/25 revenue distribution terms, 80% internal concentration of tokens, and the overlapping identities between family and regulatory decision-makers form the institutional basis for conflicts of interest. Problems at this level will not automatically disappear due to improved market conditions or partial repayments.
- Operational Risk: The Dolomite lending incident reveals the project's lack of basic risk management awareness at the financial decision-making level and a lack of transparent disclosure for related-party transactions. Combined with the token's low liquidity, such operations have potential destructive power over market stability.
Airdrop Opportunities & Interaction Guides
Ethereum & Scaling
Weekly Hot Topics Catch-Up
Policy & Macro Markets
Trump announces an extension of the ceasefire, maintaining the naval blockade;
Iran: The Strait of Hormuz is part of Iran's sovereignty and will not relinquish control;
SpaceX drops an "IPO bombshell": Space AI technology has not been proven and may not be commercializable;
US SEC Chair: Advancing the establishment of a digital asset regulatory framework and proposing an "A-C-T" strategy;
Singapore to optimize crypto capital regulation: Public chain assets may no longer be uniformly classified as high-risk;
Opinions & Statements
Hong Kong Official responds to "Mid-East capital influx": It's a two-way exchange, tokenized funds have landed on Middle Eastern wealth management platforms;
Dragonfly Partner: DeFi evolves through failure, the system shows resilience and self-repair capability;
Justin Sun files a lawsuit against World Liberty Financial;
Musk agrees to make ASTEROID the SpaceX mascot (Related Meme and Backstory);
Institutions, Major Companies & Top Projects
Polymarket hints at an upcoming perpetual contract feature (Interpretation);
Security
Kelp DAO's rsETH bridge contract based on LayerZero is attacked, losing nearly $300 million (Review, Tripartite Game involving Aave, L0, Kelp), Aave Founder Stani announces a personal donation of 5000 ETH to resolve the issue;
RAVE crash (Full Review);
Iran opens fire on an oil tanker targeted by crypto fraud;
A user profits $34,000 by using a hairdryer to interfere with Polymarket's temperature prediction market...
Attached: Portal to the "Weekly Editor's Pick" series. See you next time~
