"1011 Insider Whale" Agent: US-Iran War Could Trigger 15% Oil Supply Gap Far Exceeding Historical Levels, Oil Prices Face Upward Pressure

Odaily News: "1011 Insider Whale" agent Garrett Jin posted on the X platform, stating that historically there has been a clear correlation between oil supply gaps and oil price increases: an approximately 7% supply gap in 1973 drove oil prices up by about 300%, an approximately 5% gap in 1979 drove an increase of about 150%, and an approximately 6% gap in 1990 drove an increase of about 130%. The potential supply shock scale around the Strait of Hormuz is currently about 15%, far higher than historical cases. Most institutional models currently assume the shock duration is only "a few days to a few weeks," but almost no models anticipate the shock could last for months. In reality, once the market consensus on duration is broken, more long funds may be forced to enter the market, thereby further pushing up oil prices.