U.S. February Non-Farm Payrolls Expected to Cool but Not Stall; Fed Rate Cuts May Be a Distant Hope Amid War Clouds

Odaily According to forecasts, U.S. job growth likely cooled in February as the surge in healthcare hiring seen in January is expected to return to its normal trend, though the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.3%.

The closely watched employment report, to be released later by the Labor Department, may paint a picture of a stabilizing labor market. Earlier in 2025, the labor market had stumbled due to what economists described as uncertainty stemming from former U.S. President Trump's comprehensive tariff policies. This would further solidify economists' view that the Federal Reserve is in no hurry to resume interest rate cuts, especially as the war in the Middle East threatens to exacerbate inflation. Economists predict that non-farm payrolls likely increased by only 59,000 last month, following a gain of 130,000 jobs in January. Forecasts range from a decrease of 9,000 to an increase of 125,000. Beyond the pullback in the healthcare sector, a strike by 31,000 healthcare workers in California and Hawaii may also have weighed on the employment figures. (Jin10)