Former Bank of Japan Official: Probability of BOJ Rate Hike in April Remains Around 50%

Odaily News: Eiji Maeda, a former Bank of Japan official in charge of monetary policy, stated that even with new uncertainties arising from the Iran conflict, the probability of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan next month remains around 50% after it kept rates unchanged in March. He said, "The next rate hike is most likely to occur in April or June. Given the current uncertainties, the probabilities for each are roughly equal. For the Bank of Japan, this is an extremely difficult situation." He noted that due to increased risks of falling behind on inflation, an April hike would be more prudent. His view aligns with the general market consensus; overnight swap markets indicate traders see about a 60% chance of a hike in April. Maeda pointed out, "If the Bank of Japan does not act in April, the yen could weaken further. If it breaks through 160 against the dollar, the risk of falling behind market trends would increase." Even at current levels, the yen is "quite weak," and a slight correction would be more comfortable for Japanese businesses and households. (Jin10)