Analysis: Bitcoin Shows Recovery Signals After "Five Consecutive Monthly Declines," Healthy Derivatives Expansion Points to Phased Recovery

Odaily reported: A Bitfinex report pointed out that Bitcoin has closed lower for five consecutive months since October 2025, marking the first "five consecutive monthly declines" structure since 2018. The single-month decline in February reached 14.93%, with a cumulative maximum drawdown of approximately 52.34% in this round. However, early signs of recovery have emerged in the market since entering March.

Data shows that since March 1st, a total of approximately $3.2 billion worth of BTC has been systematically bought at market prices across exchanges, successfully reclaiming the $65,000 level. The Coinbase Premium Index ended its 40-day streak of negative values and turned positive, indicating the return of spot buying pressure from the U.S. side. The derivatives structure also remains relatively healthy: Open Interest (OI) has risen to $53.1 billion, a 15.4% increase from Sunday's close, but the perpetual funding rate is only around 9.5% APR, showing no signs of overheating. The simultaneous expansion of OI and spot prices reflects that this round of increase is more driven by spot absorption. Regarding ETFs, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $1.1 billion in net inflows last week, with over $450 million combined on Monday and Tuesday, indicating institutional demand remains the core support.

Analysis suggests that if key support levels hold, Bitcoin may potentially recover to the $80,000–$85,000 range over the next 1–3 months. In the short term, attention should be paid to the $72,000–$74,000 short liquidation concentration zone and the potential dynamic support level around $66,000. The overall assessment maintains a cautiously optimistic bias.