Analysis: Bitcoin Recovery Still Hampered by ETF Outflows and Strategic Selling by Large Holders, Market Sentiment Remains Cautious

Odaily News Bitfinex's report indicates that the Bitcoin market has recently been fluctuating within the short-term range of $65,000–$70,000, but the long-term trend remains downward. Since hitting its all-time high last October, the significant correction has persisted for over 52%. Despite a roughly 20% rebound from the low on February 5th, prices this week still fell below the lower bound of the range and tested new lows. Macroeconomic uncertainties have intensified, particularly after the Supreme Court's ruling on the Trump administration's tariff increases, leading to a recovery in precious metals like gold and silver. Meanwhile, crypto market traders continue to pay a premium for downside protection. The Exchange Whale Ratio shows that recent Bitcoin inflows into exchanges primarily originated from large holders. This concentrated inflow typically signifies strategic selling rather than short-term forced liquidations or retail investor sell-offs. Large holders may be selling at key structural levels or during fixed daily timeframes, reflecting intentional market positioning. Last week, the options market saw its first reduction in downside protection, but influenced by the tariff news, traders did not re-establish long positions, only adjusting for extreme tail risks. Short-term expiry contract trading data suggests market sentiment leans towards caution rather than optimism.