Analysis: SOPR Drops to 0.92–0.94 Range, Marginal Macro Improvement but BTC Structural Bull Market Not Yet Established

Odaily News Bitfinex released an analysis report indicating that falling US inflation and rising expectations for interest rate cuts provide psychological support for risk assets, but the crypto market is more likely to experience phased volatility rather than a one-sided trend. The expansion of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduces systemic liquidity risk, which historically has been favorable for scarce assets like Bitcoin. However, the current pace of liquidity recovery is relatively slow. Early this week, selling pressure on spot Bitcoin reappeared, with cumulative sell-offs reaching tens of billions of dollars. Although the market's ability to absorb selling pressure has improved compared to before, on-chain metrics show that the adjusted SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) has fallen to the 0.92–0.94 range, reflecting that most coins are being transferred at a loss, indicating that structural pressure persists. The current macro environment provides some liquidity buffer for the crypto market, but it is not yet sufficient to support a sustained bull market. Bitcoin has room for a tactical rebound in the short term, but long-term structural upward movement still requires clearer signals of declining inflation and sustained spot demand support.