Analysis: Bear Market Expected to Persist Until Mid-2027, Closely Monitor the Signal of the 90-Day and 365-Day Moving Average Crossover

Odaily Crypto analyst Axel stated in a personal blog post that the current bear market cycle began from the all-time high of approximately $125,000 in October 2025 — confirmed by the Entity-Adjusted Liveliness indicator, which reached its cycle peak of 0.02676 in December 2025, showing a typical lag compared to price, and is now reversing downward.

Historically, such reversals typically initiate an accumulation phase lasting 1.1 to 2.5 years. The chart clearly shows the two previous accumulation cycles: the 2020 bear market lasted 1.1 years, and the 2022–2024 bear market lasted 2.5 years. Both started in exactly the same manner, with the green line reversing from its peak and entering a sustained decline phase, followed by a downward price movement. The current pattern is structurally identical.

If historical patterns repeat, this accumulation period will last at least until the end of 2026, with a more realistic expectation extending to mid-2027. The key confirmation signal is — the 90-day moving average reverses downward and crosses below the 365-day moving average (0.02622) from above. Until this crossover occurs, the possibility of a mid-cycle reset and a resumption of the uptrend remains.